Mets fans, it’s time…

…to panic.

I’m one of the most patient Mets fans out there. I watched, or listened to, or followed closely in some way, around 160 Mets games last year. I missed Pirates vs. Mets on June 3rd (with Santana pitching) because I was watching a theatre performance, and I probably missed one other game in there somewhere (being on a plane or something). And I never “gave up” on the team and stopped watching.

But this kills me. The you-know-what has hit the fan.

The news that Carlos Beltran has had knee surgery and will be out 8-12 weeks is one of the worst things that could have happened to the Mets. Beltran will not resume baseball activities until mid-April. What are the implications of this? In maybe mid-to-late May, Beltran will be in March form.

The Mets’ slogan for 2010 is “We Believe.” All we believe right now, as fans, is in failure. The turn of the calendar was supposed to signify a fresh start. But the same garbage that we put up with for all of last year has started right back up. The Mets have just seemed utterly incompetent and unable to do anything right.

A friend of mine, a Yankee fan, has argued with me for the past three years that the Mets are in fact the worst team and organization in the majors due to their huge failures relative to their expectations. Three years in a row, they believed themselves to be pennant contenders. And they went choke, choke, bomb. I’ve always chalked them up to a variety of factors that have been used as excuses-the starting pitching in 2007, the bullpen in 2008, the injuries in 2009. And I’ve also said hey, you could be the Pirates, the Padres, the Orioles, et cetera. But it’s true: the Mets have been the worst team relative to expectations since the start of the 2006 NLCS. They lost in 7 games to a team that won 14 fewer games.

Why is this? Top to bottom, the team is just a mess. At the top, you have owners who are arrogant and can’t get with the darn program. Their moves signify that they always believe they are “one piece away.” Sure, chalk it up to the situation-you can’t fail in this city. But at this point, you’ve failed three years in a row. So change should happen. Then there’s a GM who is not a good communicator and frankly is not qualified for his job. He could be an assistant. Omar Minaya is just not fit for the administrative side of being a GM. He has always had a great rep for being a “good guy” who can make players feel comfortable. But he’s not good from a business standpoint.

The training staff, the PR staff, everyone involved with the stadium have made decisions that have made fans incredulous. Gaffes with the stadium have basically required screaming from every corner of the Mets fanbas
e. For example, displaying Mets logos in their own park. I’ve heard fans of other teams say of Citi Field that it could be “any team’s ballpark.” And there is only ONE New York Mets logo that I can see from my seat in the field. Nice, huh?

And every issue is just handled terribly from a media standpoint. The way the Mets have been spreading their news this offseason-through Mike Francesa. I have a beef with this guy that I won’t get into, but it seems like they feed him news in exchange for a “free pass” on their mistakes. Not trusting the beat reporters or any national reporters who are more credible and more established journalists.

The point is, the Met fan has far too many reasonable grievances that can be aired and have not really been solved. Or, it’s the fact that their are issues, period, that should not exist.

Beltran may really end up being with the Mets and in form in June. But the way this, and everything else has been handled, Mets fans will continue to be dissatisfied. I don’t think there’s a Met fan in the world who has been truly pleased with the team since October of 2006. It gets worse for other teams, sure. But with the loyalty we Mets fans show, we deserve much better. And we’ve honestly already taken some action to voice our displeasure. The stadium may not be close to full next year. Eventually, big changes may come. It may take time. But we can only put our trust in the Wilpons-or not.

This article does not have any solutions, or ideas for solutions. It’s simply a sample of the problems with the Mets to show that as an organization, they have a long way to go. The team can still succeed nonwithstanding, but that is proving harder and harder with time. The team the Mets put on the field may in fact be a pretty good one. But “pretty good” is just a pretty good way to disguise the problems.

I just beg that the Mets can have some success this year and alleviate some issues, because as a fan, you get a feeling of supreme discomfort of trying to have pride in a team that is so stained by the issues of the Omar Minaya era.

Analysis of the Top Tier of the Market

So, here goes…here’s what I think about how the best players in the trade and free agent market are going to play out in their respective situations.

Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are going to be connected through the offseason. The reason for this is the Red Sox’ top priority is to maintain a power bat in left field. They aren’t going to jump through hoops for Jason Bay because they can win a bidding war but know patience could be key. Thus, their current 4 year/$60 million offer will stay put for a while. The Mets have a similar need for a power bat, but the more general need to make a big signing to keep fans from going absolutely nuts (which they are borderline-doing right now). The Mets would probably be more willing to not sign a big left fielder than the Red Sox because in THAT event, they could make a run at John Lackey and then make a trade for a LF (John Maine for Corey Hart has been discussed).
Some wild-card factors here are the following: the Angels probably need to make a big signing to keep a solid core intact. As it stands right now, they aren’t a playoff team. They have some solid young players filling out their supporting cast, Torii Hunter, and Kendry Morales, and a rotation that is minus a frontman. They have expressed interest in Bay, Holliday, Lackey, and even Roy Halladay, but I really don’t see them making a concerted effort. For a team that should NEED to make a move, they have been awfully passive outside making a trade offer for Roy Halladay of Erick Aybar, Joe Saunders, and Peter Bourjos (a CF prospect).
Another factor is that Bay seems to be very interested in playing for the Seattle Mariners, but basically, I still see Bay and Holliday ending up, in some combination, on the Red Sox and Mets (one will go one place, the other will go to the other place). In terms of price, I see Bay getting no more than 5 years at $17.5 million per (likely less, either in terms of years or price) and Holliday getting no more than 6 years at $20 million per (likely much less, despite Holliday’s demand of 8 years).
The Halladay market seems to be headed by the Phillies and Angels. The Blue Jays are still demanding a top-line pitcher (Kyle Drabek/J.A. Happ/possibly even Cole Hamels) and a position prospect (Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor) plus more. The Angels made an alleged offer to the Blue Jays, but this offer has been unconfirmed by most and shot down by some. The Yankees will be lurking, but probably won’t want to part with top positional prospect Jesus Montero (catcher) and at least one of Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain.
The market for Lackey is much less defined. This may be due to the fact that the mid-level free agent pitchers have been getting much larger deals than expected (Randy Wolf: 3/$29M; Joel Piniero demanding 4 years). This may end up driving Lackey’s price up, hence the hesitation for teams to make offers to him. It still seems that interested teams include the Yankees, Angels, and Mets, as well as dark horses Seattle and Texas. It’s still unclear who the frontrunners in this market will be; however, Lackey has demanded (and deserves) something around or above A.J. Burnett’s 5 year/$82.5M contract from last year. He should get between 4 and 6 years at around $17 million per; the more years he gets, the less money.  Thus, his contract could be between 4 years/$72 million and 6 years/$100 million.

Dan Uggla a Fit for the Mets?

A quick thought…my logic may be faulty here, but the Mets are looking for power, somewhere. What if they traded for Uggla (probably the most freely available power bat in the trade market), batted him 5th, playing second, and went for a faster, better defensive player (Pagan, etc.) in LF? I know LF can’t compensate for defense at 2B, but could it be a “compromise?”

Uggla, for his career, is just below average as a defender (he’s had 2 bad years, 2 above average years) with a -2.9 UZR in 4 seasons. He walks a lot and showed the power to hit the ball out of Citi Field this year. I think the power can compensate for the defense…

On Moving D-Wright to First Base

Dwright.jpg

I heard this idea come up again a few days ago. I’ve kicked it around, and I’m going to make a case for it. I’m not sure that I believe in it 100%, but, again, I’m just seeing where going in this direction takes us. This sort of plan gears more towards “building for the future.”
David Wright, while he has been a Gold Glove third baseman twice, is not an elite fielder. His UZR has never been that great-never in the top tier of MLB third baseman. He’s been above average a few times, but never that great. He does not have a strong third baseman’s arm-Just watch the throws he makes versus the throws A-Rod makes. A-Rod has the arm to side-arm sling the ball across the diamond with accuracy EVERY time. Wright has struggled with his arm slot in the past, switching from over-the-top to side-arm and back again. Since the middle of 2008 he’s had trouble throwing the ball down the line (towards home, if looking at first base from second base) and making low throws in the dirt. However, he does have great reflexes and great hands for backhanding the balls to his left and right. He has good range. But again, the arm puts a damper on his third base ability
I’m confident that David could learn to play first base well. He is an open-minded, smart, team-first ballplayer. First base is one of the least complex positions to learn on the field. Furthermore, the move to first allows the Mets to make several changes that I am attaching to this argument. Move Wright to first, and sign Chone Figgins. Wright should give the Mets at least what Carlos Delgado gave them, which was average to below-average defense at first base. Chone Figgins would be an improvement over Wright, as Figgins is a true elite fielder. He also can play multiple other positions, and could gear the Mets more towards being a speed-oriented team-perhaps molding them in the form of the Anaheim Angels. The Mets already steal a good amount of bases, and Figgins could add another 40-steal guy to the top of a lineup that already has Jose Reyes.
Now, with these changes in place, I would not advocate signing Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, or any high-profile position player this offseason. They would probably have enough money after a Figgins signing to get Lackey. For left field, I would advocate “building for the future.” For a year, you could plug the spot with Angel Pagan. You also allow Fernando Martinez to compete for the job in Spring Training, along with Chris Carter and maybe, in the future, Ike Davis (who has played RF during his minor-league tenure). However, ultimately there is an odd man out…which, conveniently enough, leaves trade bait that the Mets could readily move-perhaps for some more pitching depth.
It’s an idea to think about, because I would be comfortable with this plan knowing that it allows the Mets to a) make a high profile signing(s), but b) still build for the future by allowing young guys to compete for the spot in left field and c) leave a prospect open as trade bait, whether it’s Davis, Martinez, or even Pagan, who teams seem to like.

Two Awful Mistakes the Mets Might Make

This is a short post. But, it needs to be stated.

The Mets let Kelly Shoppach pass today. Should have traded for him if it only cost a PTBNL, but okay, I’ll let it slide. I fear them doing the following rumored things…
Giving a 2-year deal to Bengie Molina
Giving a 3-year deal to Johnny Damon
The fact that these moves are being thought about disgusts me beyond words. If these two are playing for the Mets next year, I might actually change the way I look and pay attention to the Mets, which is near-impossible to do, considering I followed (listened to, watched, when possible, or followed on my phone) every single game this season.

Win now, or in the future?

The heart of the New York Mets’ dilemma is the struggle between how the Mets should plan and build their team. Through 2006, Omar Minaya had done a good job retooling the team, adding some great talent through trading and free agency and surrounding that talent with bright young studs and wily veterans. The process Omar used in his early years with the Mets worked well and nearly paid off in 2006.

But after 2006, Minaya and the Mets have managed the team as if they are still a game from the World Series. Some say that this couldn’t be further from the truth and the Mets need to rebuild and stockpile young talent for the future. Some think the Mets can be contenders in 2010. I’m not going to absolutely pass judgment in one way or another.
The fact of the matter is that the organization has been put in a very tough spot. After 2006 everyone thought we could win again. But three years later, more and more fans are calling for a rebuilding process despite not much changing with the team in the past three years. What should be done? I don’t believe that the Mets are a game from the World Series, still. But I do believe that while they are top-heavy, they can be playoff contenders. They aren’t championship contenders yet. But with Santana, K-Rod, Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, they are on their way with a great core. I still feel that the Mets can build to win now. But I’m not sure if it’s the right thing. Their system is very dry. Perhaps they can find a way to compromise between both routes.

A Case Study on Sabermetrics and the New York Mets

As a fan, I’m a believer. For this reason, I have been
stressing that Mets fans should not overreact to what has happened since the
playoff run in 2006. The Mets collapsed in September two years in a row, then
in mid-June the next, but the fact of the matter is, they still retain one of
the strongest and most talented cores in baseball with David Wright, Jose
Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Johan Santana. I think any general manager in the
league would take those four if they were starting a team.

 

            Another
thing I’ve been saying is that despite the changing of the Mets’ support staff
on a large scale, they still have the ability to play to the level of the 2006
Mets, and I’m going to direct you to some numbers that show this. First of all,
if you take a look back at the 2006 Mets, you’ll see some…interesting things.
First of all, while that team blew away the National League, they didn’t in
fact do anything unbelievably well. They scored 843 runs, a good amount, but
they weren’t a prolific offense by any stretch. Very good, but not more.
Additionally, their pitching staff put up a good 4.15 ERA, but it wasn’t a
staff that was great at all, maybe just good. Glavine, Trachsel, Orlando
Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, and John Maine made up most of the staff, but none
of them posted better than a 3.82 ERA or won more than 15 games. Only Trachsel
and Glavine won double-digit games. And finally, according to
BaseballReference.com, the team’s Pythagorean record (expected win-loss record
based on runs scored and allowed) was 91-71…not the sign of such a dominant
team despite the ’06 squad’s regular season success.

 

            I
won’t claim to be a true “numbers” guy, but I have recently done a great deal
of research into sabermetrics, primarily via the site FanGraphs.com. I advise
you to check it out; it’s beyond awesome. In case you’re not familiar with
sabermetrics, they involve deep mathematical analyses of baseball numbers to
create some stats that can show you how good players at things that are tough
to quantify, like defense and value to a team. Some might think it’s cynical to
trust and rely on such stats, but this piece is a sort of case study
contrasting the 2006 Mets with how the 2010 Mets could be shaped. Even if you
are not a numbers person, I urge you to read it, because it could certainly
broaden your perspective. “The baseball book” may be the most tried and tested
method of evaluation, but I think we can move forward and more readily predict
a team’s success based on some numbers I’ve found.

 

            The
statistic I’m going to be focusing on is called WAR; wins over replacement.
This stat is applied to position players (factoring in hitting and defense, I
will call it bfWAR) and pitchers (factors in just pitching, I’ll call it pWAR).
It directly measures how many wins a player is worth to a team over a
replacement-level player. A replacement is defined as your average free agent
major league straggler who may get an invite to Spring Training but doesn’t
always make a team. Replacements are generally below average hitters and
average defenders. An average player is worth about 2 wins to his team (bfWAR
of 2.0). For pitchers, on the other hand, WARs tend to be smaller, but pitching
replacements are closer to your “league average pitcher.” One other thing to
note-WAR is applicable equally for every player no matter how many games they
play in a season (i.e., you don’t need to “qualify” to have the stat because
players who play more games always have a higher WAR).

 

            The
2006 Mets had a bfWAR of 24.6. Just for comparison, the 2009 Mets had a 12.1
bfWAR, and a good bfWAR for a playoff team is about 24 (when coupled with a
solid pitching staff). The main reason for this drop-off is because of how many
wins the Mets lost from players like Beltran, Reyes, Delgado, and Wright.
During 2006, they contributed 7.0 wins, 5.5 wins, 4.6 wins, and 2.9 wins
respectively. In 2009, they contributed 2.9, 0.7, 0.8, and 2.2 wins
respectively.

 

The fact of the matter is 2009 was
such a fluky season (with injuries, messed up occurrences, and overall bedlam)
that anything near it cannot be reasonably expected again. I’ve calculated,
based on each player’s career statistics, reasonable bfWARs for the batters on
the Mets. With these numbers, I’m going to “fill out the roster” based on who
out there is available and contributes enough to get the Mets to a point (a
given WAR number) where they should get enough value to win enough games to
make the playoffs.

 

            I’m
going to try to build towards a bfWAR of 24, which is not amazing, but is very
good, and coupled with solid pitching, should make a playoff team. The
following are the expected WAR from players currently slotted to start for the
2010 Mets. [If you want to figure out how I came up with these, go to
FanGraphs.com and check out each player's career numbers. I generally came up
with fair expectations for each.]

 

3B: David Wright (5.5)

SS: Jose Reyes (5.5)

CF: Carlos Beltran (5.5)

RF: Jeff Francoeur (1.0)

 

            Every
other position is up for grabs on the Mets. While I’m not going to be factoring
in players who add negative WAR ratings (which do exist) I will factor those in
at the end (a team’s bench is usually replacement level, and the Mets’ pitching
staff generally contributes -3.5 wins in terms of batting). What the Mets need
out of their open positions is as follows: (possible starter in parentheses)

 

C (Omir Santos/platoon?) 2.0

1B (Daniel Murphy?) 
2.5

2B (Luis Castillo?) 2.5

LF 3.5

 

            Adding
up the presented WAR values and factoring out the bench and pitching gives you
24.5 wins, which is about the level of the 2006 Mets. (I’ll address who fills
each spot later) Note that the WAR values can be “switched around” between
positions, so long as they add up to that magic 24.5.

 

            The
2006 pitching staff was worth 14.2 wins. They were solid, but not great. I
think with Santana, and a better closer in K-Rod, the Mets could have a better
pitching staff than the 2006 one (contingent upon more consistency and some
signings) the following are expected WAR values for the starters and relievers
currently slotted in for the Mets, (these are subject to change, obviously) and
desired values for the open spots.

 

SP1: Johan Santana (5.0)

SP2: (4.0)

SP3: John Maine (1.5)

SP4: Mike Pelfrey (2.0)

SP5: Oliver Perez (1.0)

CL: Francisco Rodriguez (2.0)

RP: Pedro Feliciano (.5)

RP: Bobby Parnell (.5)

RP: Sean Green (.5)

RP: (1.5) [Setup man]

 

            Factor
in other pitchers, and you get about 17 wins over replacement for pitchers,
give or take a few. With a 24.5 bfWAR and a 17 pWAR, the 2010 Mets would be more
valuable as a whole in terms of wins than the 2006 Mets. And frankly, it’s my
belief that these numbers do translate into more wins on the field.

 

            Now,
how to go about filling these spots? I’ve looked at every open position in the
“Core-15″ that the Mets need to fill and picked out a host of possibilities at
each position. Candidates are listed with their 2009 WAR values/

 

SP2

Roy Halladay (7.3), John Lackey (3.9), Joel Piniero (4.8),
Randy Wolf (3.0), Jason Marquis (3.8)

There is great risk
involved with each candidate, save Lackey. Halladay might be near-impossible to
acquire, and the other three probably won’t live up to their 2009 campaigns,
but could be solid. Lackey is the best fit.

 

RP (Setup)

Rafael Betancourt (1.4), Kiko Calero (1.4), George Sherrill
(1.4), Mike Gonzalez (.9), Rafael Soriano (2.0)

I speculate that
Sherrill could be available via trade, but there are 4 solid, viable setup
candidates who should not be prohibitively expensive.

 

C

Bengie Molina (1.8), Gregg Zaun (1.8), Miguel Olivo (2.2),
Chris Snyder (.6, injured), Rod Barajas (.8)

Gregg Zaun could be a
good one-year fit in a platoon with Santos (projected worth 1.0 WAR) while
Thole grows. While Molina and Olivo fit, they are both horrible defenders who
swing at everything. The Mets can’t have more Jeff Francoeurs in the lineup.

 

1B

Nick Johnson (2.4), Lyle Overbay (2.0), Jorge Cantu (1.6),
Fernando Tatis (1.5), Ryan Garko (.8), Carlos Delgado (.8)

With the exception of
Johnson and Overbay, the candidates mostly fill a platoon along with Daniel
Murphy, who I project to be worth 1.0 WAR. Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, and
Lance Berkman could all be potential long-term fits through trade, but would be
very tough to acquire.

 

2B

Brandon Phillips (3.2), Orlando Hudson (3.0), Felipe Lopez
(4.6)

All viable candidates.
Luis Castillo (worth 1.6 WAR last year) could stay, but it’s apparent that the
Mets are better off going for one of these guys. Hudson is probably the most
readily available and consistent (Lopez has had some terrible seasons).

 

LF

Matt Holliday (5.7), Carl Crawford (5.5), Jason Bay (3.5),
Mike Cameron (3.5)

All good candidates.
It’s visible how much Bay’s defense detracts from his value, and how much
Cameron’s adds to his. Holliday, in my opinion, is the clear choice.

 

            The
remaining needs are a sixth starter/swingman type, another short reliever,
possibly another catcher, a few utility infielders, and two outfielders. They
don’t necessarily need to be worth anything, they are just roster spots to
fill. I like the Mets’ options right now in those categories-I think these
seven spots could be filled with the following: Nelson Figueroa/Jon Niese; Brian
Stokes; Omir Santos; Fernando Tatis; Angel Pagan; Jeremy Reed; Alex Cora. They
could also be filled from the farm (Fernando Martinez) or outside the
organization. These spots are simply not as important.

 

            In
short, from the potential available players, it’s clear that the Mets need to
spend some money, but in truth, as I’ve always said, they aren’t that far away.
They don’t need to rebuild. They aren’t one game from the World Series just
yet, but they need to take the first step and become a playoff team once again.

 

I’m not going to discuss every
potential combination of signings, but I’ll leave you with the optimal lineup
based on who’s out there, the ease of acquiring them, and the money available.
Essentially, the point is there going to have to shell out some money and
acquire both the best pitcher and batter on the market. But that’s life, and
that’s how you can win, as the 2009 Yankees showed us.

 

The “Optimal” Lineup

SS Jose Reyes

2B Orlando Hudson

3B David Wright

CF Carlos Beltran

LF Matt Holliday

1B Daniel Murphy

RF Jeff Francoeur

C Rod Barajas/Omir Santos (platoon)

bfWAR (projected): ~25

 

SP1: Johan Santana

SP2: John Lackey

SP3: John Maine (enough Johns?)

SP4: Mike Pelfrey

SP5: Oliver Perez

CL: Francisco Rodriguez

RP: Pedro Feliciano

RP: Rafael Betancourt

RP: Bobby Parnell

RP: Sean Green

pWAR (projected): ~15

 

            I
would be happy to see the Mets go to battle with this team in 2010.

The Mets Should Trade for Josh Johnson

josh-johnson.jpgYesterday, it was reported that Josh Johnson and the Marlins were at an impasse in their contract talks. The Marlins are currently offering Johnson an extension that would buy out just one of his free agent years. The general thought is that Johnson’s payday should be nine figures. However, the Marlins, as shown timelessly in the past, are very against locking up players over the long term. This could make Johnson available via the trade market.

If Johnson is available, the Mets should go as hard as they can for him, for several reasons. One, he is very young-25 years old. A pitcher that young is rarely ever available. Two, Johnson has great stuff, and is a workhorse, and could be a Cy Young candidate next year. It might not take that much to pry Johnson from the Marlins-he could be cheaper in terms of prospects than Roy Halladay.
There is one risk with Johnson-early in his career, he had to undergo Tommy John surgery. However, pitchers who undergo Tommy John surgery very early on, like Mariano Rivera, often have more successful careers than guys who get surgery mid-career because their arms are not as worn down when the procedure is done.
If I were the Mets, I’d be offering at least Fernando Martinez and either Brad Holt or Jenrry Mejia plus two more prospects. Josh Johnson would be a fantastic number 2 starter and is young enough that the Mets could have him for a few years without an extension being necessary. They also could extend him now, for cheaper than they might need to in the future.
I still feel that the Mets can be a competitive team, because they have some of the top talents in baseball in their core. But they desperately need to show their commitment to excellence by improving their supporting cast and doing so with urgency. Making an aggressive play for Josh Johnson would be a great way to do that. 
PS-A tip of the cap to the BBWAA for picking the guys who deserved to win the Cy Youngs. Hopefully this could signal the end of an era of wins being so cherished when they are a near-meaningless stat for pitchers.

The Matt Holliday Sweepstakes

mattholliday.jpg

While it’s early in the race for the top free agent on the market this year, several facts have been established. We’ve got competitors, an expected deal, and several implicit hints that are leading me to believe this might end up being very much like the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes from last year.
As of right now, we’re had several teams emerge as potential suitors for Holliday. And in the coming days, I predict that the situation might set itself up a lot like Teixeira’s did last year, in that there will be a main competitor, a few pretenders, and perhaps one or two teams who pretend to be “in it but disinterested” that might be bluffing or trying to “surprise everyone” by sweeping in at the end and picking him up.
Scott Boras has said that Holliday should be worth 8 years/$180 million. He’s not worth that-I believe he once said Tex should get $210 million last winter-but he will get somewhere between 8/$180MM and the 6/$96MM that the Cardinals offered him. With that…
THE MAIN COMPETITOR
St. Louis Cardinals
Like the Red Sox last year, I think that the Cards will be the main bidders for Holliday. They clearly benefit from his bat in the middle of the lineup, protecting Albert Pujols, and it seems that Pujols wants to be a Cardinal forever and is in no rush to sign an extension, because he feels he doesn’t need to. Holliday seems to be somewhat inclined to stay, as he’s moved around a lot lately and it’s relatively close to his home in Oklahoma. The Cardinals would probably willing to up their bid for him.
THE PRETENDERS
Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants
Both these teams could use the power righty bat, but I think they have no shot at getting him ultimately, like the Orioles and Nationals from last season with Teixeira. The Giants will probably end up going after cheaper free agents and a catcher to hold Buster Posey’s spot until he’s ready (which is probably sooner rather than later) and it seems that the Braves will be more involved via the trade market.
THE SNEAKS
New York Mets, New York Yankees
Here are the two teams I think may play the role the Yankees did last year. Today, it’s been reported that the Mets may not have the payroll to spend on Holliday due to their other needs, and the Yankees are more focused on bringing back Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Andy Pettitte. However, I don’t see them needing to spend more than $20-25 million total on these three. And honestly, I wouldn’t put it past the Yankees to add Holliday in addition to these three. If they let one of the three go, the odds of the Yanks adding him increase. The only questions are whether they want another high-money, long-term commitment (they have CC, AJ, Jeter, A-Rod, and Teixeira already) and whether they would have a spot for Holliday if both Damon and Matsui come back.
The Mets have hinted today that they might rather overhaul their supporting cast and emphasize more mid-level moves as opposed to huge moves. They also might rather explore the trade market rather than this year’s very weak free agent market, which may inflate Holliday’s price. However, at this point, there is a huge amount of pressure from the fan base on team frontmen Jeff Wilpon and Omar Minaya, and they may need to sign Holliday to sell some tickets.
Ultimately…Matt Holliday’s name has been thrown around in association with New York from at least 18 months. I see him going, in some way, to New York, because ultimately, money talks, and I don’t see him taking a hometown discount, as this is going to be his big payday.

Let’s Be Real: Discussing Met Pitchers

I want to take a look at the current starting pitching staff of the New York Mets and try to achieve an objective view of the Mets’ core pitchers. In particular, I’m focusing on the back of the Mets’ rotation.

Johan Santana is obviously the Mets’ ace, and will be for years to come. It’s likely that Santana will be past his prime once his contract his up-in fact, people have postulated that he’s currently on a downturn.
However, I’ll point out that Santana’s first year as a Met, while he was less “dominant” by typical standards (K’s, wins), he put up the lowest ERA of any full season in his career. According to Fangraphs.com, he may have benefitted from good defense, but nonetheless, it’s something to consider. Johan was also dominant in the first two months of the season-he was on his way to a Cy Young before he was injured (likely in late May/early June). He pitched through injury into August until the Mets shut him down, and without his best stuff for most of the season, Johan still posted 13 wins and a very good 3.13 ERA in an abbreviated campaign.
Realistically, Johan might not be the pitcher he was 6 years ago. He may not perform up to those standards for the Mets. But he’ll still be ace quality, and he’s a potential Hall of Famer if he puts up really good numbers in the next few years.
Now, Mike Pelfrey. I’m not going to look at Pelfrey as in-depth, because frankly, although the stats say he had a terrible year, and he seemed terrible, he fell victim to poor defense, as his FIP (fielder-independant pitching, like ERA, but factoring out defense) was almost .6 runs lower than his ERA. Pelfrey’s strikeouts and groundball rates were up, but so were his home runs, walks, and batting average. However, it’s very likely that Pelfrey was a victim of “the Verducci Effect,” which is a large hike in innings in the prior year. Indeed, Pelfrey threw almost 60 more innings in 2008 than 2007 (200.2, up from 146.2) so this may have been a reason behind his down year.
Pelfrey did struggle mentally during the year as well. He could not figure it out with men on base, had the “yips” at one point, and couldn’t really get it together. However, he is still young, and can still improve to a mid- to top-of-the-rotation starter, despite the step back.
Now, John Maine. He has been an enigma during his Mets career. He had a good 15-win, sub-4 ERA 2007 that was highlighted by a near no-hitter (broken up by that infamous Paul Hoover swinging bunt). However, he followed that with an inconsistent and then injury-marred 2008, and a similar 2009. Maine has been less up-and-down than any other Met pitcher, but has shown the ability to get flustered often. Additionally, scouts say that Maine’s release point and arm angle cause the natural location of his pitches to be up and to the right-that is, up and in to a righty. What this means is that when Maine has to throw across his body to get  his pitches down the middle, or they sail.
The knock on Maine is that he’s never been able to harness the great stuff he has-a heavy, riding fastball that beats batters high, and a good slider with a serviceable changeup. He does not pitch deep into games, either. Maine is certainly at a crossroads-he is no longer young-he will be 29 in May of next season. If he is to serve the Mets well in the middle of their roation, he has to get himself together mentally and get healthy physically.
Now…what can we say about Oliver Perez that hasn’t been said before? It’s awful that Perez has proven to have good stuff, with fantastic ’04 and ’07 campaigns with good ERAs and 12+ wins. However, he’s often just as terrible as he is good, and has only been healthy for one full season. Frankly, Oliver Perez cannot be a front-of-the-rotation MLB starter. It’s very difficult to know as a Mets fan that you’ll have to put up with him, because he’s inconsistent enough that he can’t be considered than more of a 4th or 5th starter.
Jon Niese is the guy who has the most promise of any Met pitcher. He has shown some very good signs in his young MLB career, with a good fastball, a deceptive motion, and an awesome curveball, along with a cutter he added for right-handed batters. Most likely, his injury won’t impair his ability to pitch-pitchers often get back to 100% much more quickly with lower-body injuries as opposed to arm injuries.
Simply put, the Mets rotation at its best CAN BE one of the best 1-2-3-4-5 rotations is baseball. But the Mets’ pitchers are so inconsistent that it’s near impossible to dream for them to all realize their potentially.
Realistically, the Mets have an ace and a handful of inconsistent but talented back-of-the-rotation pitchers. To be a championship team, they have to add a solid starter…and to compete, these guys HAVE to step up.
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