Johan Santana is obviously the Mets’ ace, and will be for years to come. It’s likely that Santana will be past his prime once his contract his up-in fact, people have postulated that he’s currently on a downturn.

However, I’ll point out that Santana’s first year as a Met, while he was less “dominant” by typical standards (K’s, wins), he put up the lowest ERA of any full season in his career. According to Fangraphs.com, he may have benefitted from good defense, but nonetheless, it’s something to consider. Johan was also dominant in the first two months of the season-he was on his way to a Cy Young before he was injured (likely in late May/early June). He pitched through injury into August until the Mets shut him down, and without his best stuff for most of the season, Johan still posted 13 wins and a very good 3.13 ERA in an abbreviated campaign.

Realistically, Johan might not be the pitcher he was 6 years ago. He may not perform up to those standards for the Mets. But he’ll still be ace quality, and he’s a potential Hall of Famer if he puts up really good numbers in the next few years.

Now, Mike Pelfrey. I’m not going to look at Pelfrey as in-depth, because frankly, although the stats say he had a terrible year, and he seemed terrible, he fell victim to poor defense, as his FIP (fielder-independant pitching, like ERA, but factoring out defense) was almost .6 runs lower than his ERA. Pelfrey’s strikeouts and groundball rates were up, but so were his home runs, walks, and batting average. However, it’s very likely that Pelfrey was a victim of “the Verducci Effect,” which is a large hike in innings in the prior year. Indeed, Pelfrey threw almost 60 more innings in 2008 than 2007 (200.2, up from 146.2) so this may have been a reason behind his down year.

Pelfrey did struggle mentally during the year as well. He could not figure it out with men on base, had the “yips” at one point, and couldn’t really get it together. However, he is still young, and can still improve to a mid- to top-of-the-rotation starter, despite the step back.

Now, John Maine. He has been an enigma during his Mets career. He had a good 15-win, sub-4 ERA 2007 that was highlighted by a near no-hitter (broken up by that infamous Paul Hoover swinging bunt). However, he followed that with an inconsistent and then injury-marred 2008, and a similar 2009. Maine has been less up-and-down than any other Met pitcher, but has shown the ability to get flustered often. Additionally, scouts say that Maine’s release point and arm angle cause the natural location of his pitches to be up and to the right-that is, up and in to a righty. What this means is that when Maine has to throw across his body to get  his pitches down the middle, or they sail.

The knock on Maine is that he’s never been able to harness the great stuff he has-a heavy, riding fastball that beats batters high, and a good slider with a serviceable changeup. He does not pitch deep into games, either. Maine is certainly at a crossroads-he is no longer young-he will be 29 in May of next season. If he is to serve the Mets well in the middle of their roation, he has to get himself together mentally and get healthy physically.

Now…what can we say about Oliver Perez that hasn’t been said before? It’s awful that Perez has proven to have good stuff, with fantastic ’04 and ’07 campaigns with good ERAs and 12+ wins. However, he’s often just as terrible as he is good, and has only been healthy for one full season. Frankly, Oliver Perez cannot be a front-of-the-rotation MLB starter. It’s very difficult to know as a Mets fan that you’ll have to put up with him, because he’s inconsistent enough that he can’t be considered than more of a 4th or 5th starter.

Jon Niese is the guy who has the most promise of any Met pitcher. He has shown some very good signs in his young MLB career, with a good fastball, a deceptive motion, and an awesome curveball, along with a cutter he added for right-handed batters. Most likely, his injury won’t impair his ability to pitch-pitchers often get back to 100% much more quickly with lower-body injuries as opposed to arm injuries.

Simply put, the Mets rotation at its best CAN BE one of the best 1-2-3-4-5 rotations is baseball. But the Mets’ pitchers are so inconsistent that it’s near impossible to dream for them to all realize their potentially.

Realistically, the Mets have an ace and a handful of inconsistent but talented back-of-the-rotation pitchers. To be a championship team, they have to add a solid starter…and to compete, these guys HAVE to step up.